Super Forecasting by P. Tetlock & D. Gardner

Pg 40 Attribute Substitution: When faced with a hard question, we often surreptitiously replace it with an easy one. Example; “Should i worry about the shadow in the long grass?” is a hard question. Without data is may be unanswerable. So we sub an easier question, “Can i easily recall a lion attacking someone from this long grass?” That question becomes a proxy for the original question and if the answer is yes to the second question, the answer to the first also becomes yes

Pg 73 The Wisdom of Crowds: Aggregating the judgement of many consistently beats the accuracy of the average member of the group

Pg 143 Epistemic Uncertainty: something you dont know but is, at least in theory knowable. Aleatory Uncertainty: something you not only dont know, it is also unknowable

Pg 164 The Dilution Effect: People base their estimate on what they think is a useful tidbit of info. Then they encounter clearly irrelevant info, meaningless noise, which they indisputably should ignore. But they dont. They sway in the wind, at the mercy of the next random gust of irrelevant info

Pg 165 Many studies have found that those who trade more frequently get worse returns than those who lean toward old-fashioned buy-and-hold strategies

Pg 240 Its funny that a 90% chance of failing people dont like, but a 10% chance of changing the world people love

Pg 260 “not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts

Let’s get 1% better everyday





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