Recency Bias
In sports, even if you are losing the game, a coach will look for things that are working during the blowout. You could be down by 30 pts, but if you get traction with a certain set of new plays, you can walk off the field with a part of your confidence in-tact. You lost the game but you are eager for the next game to put the new plays into action. It breeds confidence because what was the most recent, has worked.
Marriages forget 4yrs of heaven and only remember that 4 months of hell so they file for the big “D”. A movie will be solid or 2 hrs but if the ending was trash, we leave scratching our heads. The recency bias has robbed so many investors of capital because they think: It was hot yesterday so it will be hot today!” Yes, you want to be able to look at trends and see what some key performance indicators are and if they are presenting themselves. Just because your baby falls and cries doesn’t mean he should be left in a crib and not allowed to attempt his first step again. Give people a chance to evolve.
If someone screws up, and you don’t know if it was incompetence or malevolence, default to incompetence.
If 80% was great and 20% was sub par, don’t throw away the 80% just because the 20% is what you “would like.” Its painful for the one who is trying but only human, and can’t be all things to all people. Most books that I read start off slow because they are biz books, nothing in biz starts off well, I wait until the book is complete to pass judgement, and I don’t judge how it ended, I think about the start, middle and ending. Lets give people a fair shot and not fall into the trap of recency bias.
Lets get 1% better everyday.
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